Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review

Latest edition · June 8, 2026

Sweden 360 - 260608

SEB forecasts a 2.6% GDP growth for 2026 and expects the Riksbank to maintain rates on hold in June while simultaneously revising the long-term rate path higher.

The report highlights that Swedish economic activity showed resilience in Q1 despite softer GDP, with a strong recovery expected in Q2. The Riksbank remains in a 'wait and see' mode, keeping rates on hold in June but likely adjusting its inflation and policy rate forecasts upwards due to geopolitical risks, specifically the Strait of Hormuz closure impacting energy prices. FX markets remain range-bound for EUR/USD, and the krona is currently driven by global sentiment rather than local catalysts.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The Riksbank is expected to keep rates on hold in June but will likely signal a higher policy rate path for 2026 and 2027.
• 2.SEB maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.6% despite weak Q1 results, anticipating a recovery in Q2.
• 3.EUR/USD is expected to remain range-bound (1.15–1.18) due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and resilient US economic data.

What this series covers

• Current Macro & Market Views
• Rates & FX
• Upcoming data
• Riksbank – Market pricing and SEB view
• SEB Macro view summary
• Standardized material – FX & Fixed Income Markets

Edition archive

• Sweden 360 - 260608

  June 8, 2026

• Sweden 360 - 260525

  May 26, 2026

• Sweden 360 - 260511

  May 11, 2026