Norway 360 – Weekly Market (Re)View

Latest edition · September 21, 2026

Norway 360 260921

SEB expects Norges Bank to deliver a close-call 25bps rate hike to 4.50% in September while maintaining a mild tightening bias. Tactically, SEB recommends holding Dec26/Mar27 FRA steepeners, adding Jun27/Jun28 flattener trades, and taking profit on stretched NOK longs using NOK/SEK put spreads.

Heading into the September policy meeting, Norges Bank faces a finely balanced decision as softer summer CPI-ATE prints are counterbalanced by high energy prices, elevated business inflation expectations, and a tight labor market. SEB tilts towards a 25bps hike to 4.50% with little change to the projected rate path. In rates, SEB advises retaining a Dec26/Mar27 FRA micro steepener while adding a Jun27/Jun28 FRA flattener to capture deferred easing expectations. In FX, with CTA positioning at peak long NOK levels and the currency heavily tracking gas prices, SEB recommends preparing to take profit on NOK via NOK/SEK put options ahead of seasonal gas price deceleration.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Norges Bank's upcoming September policy rate decision is a 50/50 close call; SEB leans towards a 25bps hike to 4.50% with an intact tightening bias.
• 2.Maintain a Dec26/Mar27 FRA micro steepener and add a Jun27/Jun28 FRA flattener as rate cuts are likely priced in further out once inflation normalizes.
• 3.NOK positioning is near historical peak long driven by gas price surges; investors should take profits via NOK/SEK put spreads ahead of post-October seasonal weakness.

What this series covers

• Summary: Rate Market Views
• Summary: FX Market Views
• Macro highlights
• Rates highlights
• FX highlights (I)
• FX highlights (II)
• SEB Market Views Summary
• Upcoming Data and Events
• Norges Bank: Market pricing and SEB View
• SEB Macro View Summary
• Standard charts
• FX: Factor drivers
• FX: Technical indicators
• FX: USD/NOK
• FX: EUR/NOK
• FX: NOK/SEK
• FX: Forecasts
• FX: Hedge optimization – Forward points & option implied volatility
• FX: Oil revenue conversion & Norges Bank purchases
• Rates: Positioning – SEB CTA model
• Rates: Structural liquidity
• Rates: 3M Nibor-OIS
• Rates: Policy setting
• Rates: Premium
• Rates: Curve
• Rates: NGB issuance
• Rates: NGBs

Edition archive

• Norway 360 260921

  September 21, 2026

• Norway 360 - 260601 v2

  June 1, 2026

• Norway 360 - 260518

  May 19, 2026