Report published September 24, 2026

September Hike, but Peak Likely Reached: SEB Rates Strategy on Norges Bank

SEB · September 24, 2026

Norges Bank hiked its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.50% in a finely balanced decision, signaling that rates will stay elevated for a time. SEB expects 4.50% to mark the terminal rate, though risks remain skewed to the upside due to optimistic near-term inflation projections.

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Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Norges Bank hiked the policy rate by 25 bps to 4.50%, reversing two 2025 cuts, but signaled that the bar for additional rate hikes is high.
2.SEB expects 4.50% to be the peak policy rate, although Norges Bank's rate path reflects a 40% probability of another hike as an upside hedge.
3.The rate path was revised higher across 2027–2029 with an indicated peak at 4.60%, inverting in H2 2027 with cumulative rate cuts of 16 bps in 2027 and 50 bps in both 2028 and 2029.

Key conclusions
Large downward revision to the near-term inflation trajectory
Economic activity broadly as envisaged
To conclude
Implied rate changes per meeting

Report data

Implied rate changes per meeting

Metric	Estimate	Context
Policy Rate	4.50%	Norges Bank hiked policy rate by 25 bps from 4.25% to 4.50%.
Projected Policy Rate Peak	4.60%	New policy rate peak projected in the Norges Bank rate path, up from 4.55% previously.
Neutral Interest Rate Point Estimate	3.2%	Estimate of neutral interest rate in Norges Bank's model was raised by 0.2 ppt.
CPI-ATE Inflation (Full-Year 2026 Average)	3.0%	Underlying inflation projection lowered by 0.2 ppt to 3.0% in 2026.
Wage Growth	4.4%	Wage growth expected to be in line with wage norm at 4.4% in 2026, delivering 1.3% real wage growth.