Report published September 30, 2026
Minutes Confirm Hawkish Shift in September: SEB Riksbank Strategy Report
SEB · September 30, 2026
The Riksbank's September minutes confirm a hawkish shift across the Executive Board, pointing to a probable policy rate hike in November followed by further tightening in 2027. SEB maintains its forecast for 25 bps rate hikes in November, February, and May.
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Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Riksbank's September minutes confirm a hawkish shift across the Executive Board, making a November rate hike highly likely.
- 2.SEB forecasts 25 bps interest rate hikes in November 2026, February 2027, and May 2027, taking the policy rate to a peak of 2.50%.
- 3.Executive Board members display varying risk appetites: Thedéen and Seim explicitly support tightening, Jansson has shifted hawkish, Bunge is balanced, and Hjelm remains the most dovish.
Table of Contents
- Key points
- Dove-hawk ranking
Report data
Riksbank policy rate (2026-09-30) — as of September 30, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Current Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Riksbank policy rate announced on 2026-09-24 |
| SEB Policy Rate Forecast (Nov 2026) | 2.00% | SEB expectation for Riksbank policy rate following November meeting |
| Market Pricing for Policy Rate (Nov 2026) | 1.95% | Market pricing of Riksbank policy rate for November announcement |
| SEB Peak Policy Rate Forecast | 2.50% | SEB expects policy rate to peak at 2.50% after a May 2027 hike |
Reports in this series
Riksbank Minutes in Detail is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 30, 2026.
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