Report published September 30, 2026

Market Pricing: What's Priced In? – SEB Rates Strategy

SEB · September 30, 2026

This SEB research report provides a quantitative summary of market-implied central bank policy rates as of September 30, 2026, focusing on the Riksbank, Norges Bank, ECB, and G10 central banks. Market pricing continues to price in tighter policy trajectories compared to SEB's internal forecasts.

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Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Market pricing for the Riksbank indicates policy rate hikes from 1.75% to 1.96% in November 2026 and 2.16% by December 2026, reaching a terminal rate around 3.01% in 2028, well above SEB's forecast of 2.25% by late 2028.
2.Norges Bank policy rate pricing shows an expected peak around 4.78% in June-August 2027 before declining toward 4.45% by December 2028, significantly higher than SEB's forecast of 3.75%.
3.Market pricing for the ECB projects policy rates rising from 2.50% to 3.35% by July 2027, whereas SEB forecasts rates to plateau at 3.00% starting March 2027.

The Riksbank:
Norges Bank:
ECB:
G10, summary:

Report data

Riksbank policy rate (2026-09-30) — as of September 30, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Riksbank Spot Policy Rate	1.75%	Current spot reference policy rate for Sweden's Riksbank.
Riksbank Market Priced Policy Rate (Dec 2026)	2.16%	Market-implied Riksbank policy rate for the December 2026 meeting.
Norges Bank Spot Key Rate	4.50%	Current effective policy rate for Norges Bank.
ECB Spot Policy Rate	2.50%	Current ECB policy rate reference.
Federal Reserve Spot Reference Rate	3.88%	Current spot reference rate for the US Federal Reserve.