Report published September 25, 2026

Higher for Longer – But Different Driving Forces Behind the Rise in Yields

SEB · September 25, 2026

Global bond yields continue to surge, led by a hawkish repricing of the Fed in the US and widening sovereign risk premia in France over fiscal concerns. In the Nordics, Norges Bank is likely near its peak after a 25bp hike to 4.50%, while a hawkish Riksbank signal prompted SEB to forecast three upcoming rate hikes.

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Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.US Treasury yield increases are driven by hawkish Federal Reserve repricing and higher policy rate expectations rather than rising risk premia or unanchored long-term inflation expectations.
2.French sovereign bond yields have surged by 100bp since July 1, widening spreads against Germany to the point where France has the highest borrowing costs in the euro area due to fiscal deficit concerns.
3.In the Nordics, Norges Bank delivered a 25bp hike to 4.50% but signaled the peak is likely reached, while the Riksbank held at 1.75% with a hawkish rate path signaling three hikes up to 2.50% ahead.

Global key stories
Nordic key stories
Today's key events
Market data

Report data

French sovereign yields and spread to Germany

Metric	Estimate	Context
US 10-year Treasury yield	5.2%	Touched intraday high during bond yield surge.
US 30-year Treasury yield	5.5%	Long-term US yield level reached.
Brent crude peak price	108 USD/barrel	Peaked yesterday before pulling back on US-Iran negotiations.
French 10-year yield change	100 bp	Rise in French 10-year yield compared to 60bp rise in Germany.
Norges Bank policy rate	4.50%	Policy rate after a 25 basis point hike.