Report published September 24, 2026

Central Bank Bonanza in Scandinavia: SEB on Nordic Monetary Policy & Rising Yields

SEB · September 24, 2026

Stronger-than-expected US and European PMIs pushed global bond yields higher and equities down as rate-hike expectations picked up. In Scandinavia, market focus centers on today's decisions by Norges Bank (a 50/50 call on a rate hike) and the Riksbank (expected unchanged at 1.75%, but with hawkish rate-path guidance).

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Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Norges Bank faces a tight 50/50 decision on raising rates, with SEB forecasting a hike to 4.50% alongside an interest rate path indicating further tightening.
2.The Riksbank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% today, but forward guidance remains critical with a 60% probability of a hike indicated over the next three meetings.
3.Resilient US economic data, driven by unexpectedly strong PMI prints, pushed 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields up 15 bps (with the 10-year around 5.11%), triggering stock market declines globally.

Global key stories
Nordic key stories
Today's key events
Market data

Report data

Today's key events

Metric	Estimate	Context
US 10-year Treasury yield	5.11%	Trading around 5.11% after rising 15 bps following strong US PMI data.
Norges Bank policy rate expectation	4.50%	SEB forecast for Norges Bank policy rate decision compared to previous 4.25%.
Riksbank policy rate expectation	1.75%	SEB forecast and consensus expect Riksbank to keep rate unchanged at 1.75%.
Brent crude oil futures	102.3 $/bl	Brent futures price recorded in morning market data table.
Gold futures	4292 $/oz	Gold futures price recorded in morning market data table.