Report published August 14, 2026
The Global Week Ahead: US Treasury Valuations, CUSMA Tariff Risks, and Global Sanctions
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Scotiabank
- Report date
- August 14, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Derek Holt (VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics), Jaykumar Parmar (Senior Economic Analyst)
Finvaulta summarizes Scotiabank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Scotiabank's weekly preview highlights an attractive buying entry point for US Treasuries alongside critical risk events, including the US-Canada CUSMA tariff deadline and planned US sanctions on Iran. Key data on tap include Canadian CPI, global flash PMIs, and regional central bank rate decisions in Indonesia and Sweden.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US Treasury valuations present an attractive entry point around 4.7% on 10-year yields and 5.25% on 30-year yields, with Scotiabank forecasting 10-year yields to decline toward 4.50% by end-Q3 and 4.35% by end-Q4.
- 2.Wednesday midnight marks the critical deadline for an interim Canada-US agreement to avert 50% US tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian exports under CUSMA.
- 3.The US is planning unprecedented sanctions against Iran that could target major Chinese banks and global maritime/financial networks, creating systemic financial and trade escalation risks.
Table of Contents
- Next Week's Risk Dashboard
- Never Been Seen
- TARIFFS AND CUSMA—STAY TUNED
- ON ALERT FOR SANCTIONS
- CANADIAN INFLATION—WHEN CORE ISN'T CORE
- CENTRAL BANKS—WARSH'S FOUR QUESTIONS
- FOMC Minutes—Stale and Fresh
- Bank Indonesia—Rebuilding Credibility
- Riksbank—Let's Get the Vote Over with First
- GLOBAL MACRO—SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE
- Canada—Surging Housing, Volatile Retail
- US—Get Used to Weak Housing Markets
- Global PMIs—Front-Loaded Strength?
- UK—Not Much is Riding on Jobs and Inflation
- Australia—Aussie Jobs & Wages
- Global GDP Readings—LatAm & Asia
- Key Indicators for the week of August 17 – 21
- Global Auctions for the week of August 17 – 21
- Events for the week of August 17 – 21
- Global Central Bank Watch
Report data
Chart 4 - US 10-Year Zero-Coupon Term Premium
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.7% | Climbed from ~3.75% in September 2024; Scotiabank targets 4.50% at end-Q3 and 4.35% at end-Q4 2026. |
| US 30-Year Treasury Yield | 5.25% | Identified as an attractive entry point. |
| US 10-Year Zero-Coupon Term Premium | 80 bps | Rose from -65 bps in 2020 to over +80 bps now, the highest since post-GFC. |
| Canada Headline CPI | 3.0 % y/y | Projected to rise to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% previously, with a 0.5% m/m unadjusted gain. |
| Bank Indonesia 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate | 5.75% | Consensus unanimously expects BI to hold at 5.75%. |
Reports in this series
The Global Week Ahead is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 14, 2026.
Part of the The Global Week Ahead series — view all 4 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.7 % (Current (August 2026)) · Source: Scotiabank Economics
- US 30-Year Treasury Yield: 5.25 % (Current (August 2026)) · Source: Scotiabank Economics
- US 10-Year Zero-Coupon Term Premium: 80 bps (August 2026) · Source: Scotiabank Economics
- Canada Headline CPI: 3.0 % y/y (July 2026 (forecast)) · Source: Scotiabank Economics
- Bank Indonesia 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate: 5.75 % (August 2026) · Source: Scotiabank Economics