The Global Week Ahead

Latest edition · August 14, 2026

globalweekahead20260814

Scotiabank's weekly preview highlights an attractive buying entry point for US Treasuries alongside critical risk events, including the US-Canada CUSMA tariff deadline and planned US sanctions on Iran. Key data on tap include Canadian CPI, global flash PMIs, and regional central bank rate decisions in Indonesia and Sweden.

In this edition of The Global Week Ahead, Scotiabank Economics argues that the US Treasury selloff has reached an attractive entry point with 10-year yields around 4.7% and 30-year yields at 5.25%, maintaining a year-end 10-year target of 4.35%. Macro risk is dominated by trade and geopolitical flashpoints: a Wednesday deadline to avert 50% US tariffs on $20B of Canadian exports, and potential US Treasury sanctions targeting Iranian oil trade and Chinese banks. Data releases include Canadian July CPI (expected at 3.0% y/y), FOMC minutes focusing on Chair Warsh's strategic framework, August flash PMIs across major economies, and policy rate holds from Bank Indonesia (5.75%) and Sweden's Riksbank (1.75%).

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.US Treasury valuations present an attractive entry point around 4.7% on 10-year yields and 5.25% on 30-year yields, with Scotiabank forecasting 10-year yields to decline toward 4.50% by end-Q3 and 4.35% by end-Q4.
• 2.Wednesday midnight marks the critical deadline for an interim Canada-US agreement to avert 50% US tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian exports under CUSMA.
• 3.The US is planning unprecedented sanctions against Iran that could target major Chinese banks and global maritime/financial networks, creating systemic financial and trade escalation risks.

What this series covers

• Next Week's Risk Dashboard
• Never Been Seen
• TARIFFS AND CUSMA—STAY TUNED
• ON ALERT FOR SANCTIONS
• CANADIAN INFLATION—WHEN CORE ISN'T CORE
• CENTRAL BANKS—WARSH'S FOUR QUESTIONS
• FOMC Minutes—Stale and Fresh
• Bank Indonesia—Rebuilding Credibility
• Riksbank—Let's Get the Vote Over with First
• GLOBAL MACRO—SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE
• Canada—Surging Housing, Volatile Retail
• US—Get Used to Weak Housing Markets
• Global PMIs—Front-Loaded Strength?
• UK—Not Much is Riding on Jobs and Inflation
• Australia—Aussie Jobs & Wages
• Global GDP Readings—LatAm & Asia
• Key Indicators for the week of August 17 – 21
• Global Auctions for the week of August 17 – 21
• Events for the week of August 17 – 21
• Global Central Bank Watch

Edition archive

• globalweekahead20260814

  August 14, 2026

• globalweekahead20260710

  July 10, 2026

• globalweekahead20260618

  June 18, 2026

• globalweekahead20260605

  June 6, 2026