Latam Weekly

Latest edition · August 14, 2026

latamweekly20260814

Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews key Q2 GDP releases across Latin America alongside escalating U.S.-Mexico trade tensions over auto tariffs. Country analyses highlight consumer credit reliance in Mexico, resilient domestic demand in Peru despite El Niño disruptions, and ongoing economic weakness in Chile.

The report highlights upcoming Q2 GDP releases across Latin America, where economic growth has broadly held up with the notable exception of Chile. In Mexico, domestic consumption has been buttressed by double-digit consumer credit growth (+7.2% real in H1-26) amid sluggish job creation, while trade negotiations with the U.S. seek relief from effective auto tariffs of 11.1%. Peru's growth slowed to 2.6% y/y in Q2 due to El Niño, but private consumption and leading indicators remain robust, supporting a hold by the BCRP at 4.25%. Meanwhile, Chile's persistent slowdown is expected to force the central bank to sharply cut its 2026 growth forecast.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Upcoming regional data releases focus heavily on Q2 GDP across Chile, Colombia, and Peru, alongside Brazil's June economic activity data.
• 2.Trade tensions between Mexico and the U.S. remain elevated as effective U.S. auto duty rates reached 11.1% in June amid transshipment and USMCA content concerns.
• 3.In Mexico, consumer credit growth (+7.2% y/y real in H1-26) supports household consumption, but rising debt and softening job creation pose downside risks for future personal spending.

What this series covers

• Regional GDP, Mexico-U.S. Tensions
• Country Updates
• Mexico—Credit Supports Consumption Amid Slower Labour Market Momentum
• Peru—Solid Domestic Demand and Expectations Amid Contained Inflationary Pressures
• Market Events & Indicators for August 15–28
• Forecast Updates: Central Bank Policy Rates and Outlook
• Key Economic Charts
• Key Market Charts
• Yield Curves
• Scotiabank Economics Latam Coverage

Edition archive

• latamweekly20260814

  August 14, 2026

• latamweekly20260710

  July 10, 2026

• latamweekly20260626

  June 26, 2026

• latamweekly20260605

  June 6, 2026