Daily FX Update

Latest edition · September 2, 2026

G10 FX Daily

The USD is strengthening across the board as markets price a 70% probability of a September Fed rate hike amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf. The JPY outperformed following hawkish BoJ commentary, while the NZD plunged 1.5% after a dovish RBNZ rate hike.

The US Dollar is broadly higher as escalating Gulf clashes drive oil prices higher and OIS pricing reflects a 70% chance of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16. The Japanese Yen stood out as a G10 outperformer after BoJ board member Takata signaled the potential for rate increases exceeding 25 bps. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar led decliners, slumping 1.5% after the market judged the RBNZ's 25 bps hike as dovish. Scotiabank views current Fed pricing as overly aggressive and vulnerable to downward repricing if US employment data, including ADP and upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls, prints soft.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The US Dollar is broadly strengthening against major peers as OIS swaps price in a 70% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate hike on September 16, though Scotiabank considers this pricing overly aggressive.
• 2.The Japanese Yen outperformed G10 peers after Bank of Japan board member Takata suggested the potential for rate hikes larger than 25 bps.
• 3.The New Zealand Dollar plunged nearly 1.5% following a dovish 25 bps hike by the RBNZ, compounding broad commodity-currency weakness.

What this series covers

• Overview
• Wider Swap Spread Weakens CAD
• USD Extends Gains as Fed Expectations Build
• USDCAD short-term technicals
• EURUSD short-term technicals
• GBPUSD short-term technicals
• USDJPY
• TODAY'S CALENDAR

Edition archive

• G10 FX Daily

  September 2, 2026

• G10 FX Daily

  August 28, 2026

• G10 FX Daily

  August 27, 2026

• G10 FX Daily

  August 25, 2026

• G10 FX Daily

  August 17, 2026

• G10 FX Daily

  July 14, 2026