Report published September 25, 2026

Latam Weekly: Chile GDP, Peru CPI, BanRep Decision – Scotiabank Macro Research

Scotiabank · September 25, 2026

Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews key regional events, highlighting expected rate holds by BanRep (12.00%) and BCRP (4.25%), alongside Chilean GDP and Peruvian CPI prints. The report argues that Banco Central de Chile may soon need to shift hawkish and hike rates despite sluggish activity, while Mexico shows resilient Q3 momentum led by construction and wholesale trade.

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Finvaulta summarizes Scotiabank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Despite weak domestic economic activity, Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) may need to tilt hawkish and raise rates due to negative real policy rates, idiosyncratic CLP depreciation, and elevated inflation risks.
2.Mexico's economic growth showed stronger-than-expected momentum entering Q3, bolstered by wholesale trade and construction, though structural constraints and muted consumption continue to limit long-term expansion.
3.Colombia's BanRep is projected to maintain its policy rate at 12.00% while keeping a hawkish tone, amid previous tightening of 275 bps year-to-date.

Latam Weekly: Chile GDP, Peru CPI, BanRep Decision
Country Updates
Chile—Time to Reassess the Central Bank’s Neutral Stance?
Mexico—Economic Activity Enters the Third Quarter with Greater Resilience, Though Challenges Persist
Market Events & Indicators for September 26–October 9
Forecast Updates
Forecast Updates—Changes Compared To Previous Latam Weekly
Forecast Updates: Central Bank Policy Rates and Outlook
Key Economic Charts
Key Market Charts
Yield Curves

Report data

Brazilian 10Y Yields Defying the Global and Regional Trend

Metric	Estimate	Context
Chile Policy Rate (TPM)	4.5%	Current central bank policy rate in Chile, with potential upside risk of hikes.
Colombia Policy Rate	12.0%	BanRep overnight lending rate expected to hold at 12.00%.
Peru Policy Rate (TIR)	4.25%	BCRP benchmark rate forecast to remain unchanged.
Mexico IGAE Annual Real Growth	2.8%	Acceleration from 1.1% to 2.8% y/y in Mexico's monthly economic activity index.
Chile Real GDP Growth	-1.5 % y/y	Worst monthly performance for Chilean GDP since late-2022.