Report published September 23, 2026

Scotiabank Daily Points: Political Distortion in Oil Markets, Global PMIs, and Central Bank Policy

Scotiabank · September 23, 2026

Scotiabank cautions that pre-midterm US political jawboning is distorting oil, diesel, and potash markets despite unresolved geopolitical conflict with Iran and tight inventories. Concurrently, global PMIs reflect mixed economic growth alongside accelerating inflation pressures, while Bank Indonesia holds rates and the SARB prepares to hike.

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Finvaulta summarizes Scotiabank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Pre-midterm political jawboning by Trump is distorting commodity markets, temporarily pushing oil lower despite ongoing conflict risks with Iran, while threats of a diesel export ban or buying potash from Belarus are economically unfeasible.
2.Global September PMIs show mixed growth dynamics (slowdowns in Australia and the UK vs. acceleration in India and the Eurozone) alongside widespread, accelerating inflation pressures across input and selling prices.
3.Central banks are diverging: Bank Indonesia held its policy rate steady at 5.75% to prioritize rupiah stability, whereas the SARB is expected to hike 25 bps to 7.25% amid sticky inflation.

On Deck for Wednesday, September 23rd
KEY POINTS:
GLOBAL PMIS—MIXED GROWTH, FASTER INFLATION
CENTRAL BANKS—A HOLD AND A POSSIBLE HIKE

Report data

US Diesel Prices At Record High

Metric	Estimate	Context
Bank Indonesia Policy Rate	5.75%	Bank Indonesia held rates unchanged for a third straight meeting to support currency stability.
South Africa CPI Headline Inflation	4.4 % y/y	August inflation came in slightly below 4.5% consensus but above the 4.3% prior rate.
Australia Composite PMI	50.8 index	Australia's composite PMI fell nearly 2 points, driven by manufacturing dropping into contraction at 49.3.
Eurozone Composite PMI	53.1 index	Eurozone composite rose from 52.0 prior driven by services strengthening to 53.0.
India Composite PMI	56.5 index	Composite PMI jumped 2.2 points as manufacturing gained almost 3 points to 55.7.