Report published August 25, 2026
Scotiabank Daily Points: Canada Retaliatory Tariffs, Q3 Bank Earnings Beats, and Macro Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Scotiabank
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Derek Holt (VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics)
Finvaulta summarizes Scotiabank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Scotiabank's daily update highlights Canadian bank Q3 earnings beats and the imminent announcement of Canadian retaliatory tariffs and fiscal supports against the US. It also analyzes the potential inflation impact of trade measures and refutes misleading claims regarding Canadian economic fundamentals.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Canada is set to announce retaliatory tariffs and fiscal/business support measures today in response to US trade actions, likely targeting steel, dairy, appliances, and electronics.
- 2.Scotiabank and BMO both beat Q3 earnings expectations, with Scotiabank reporting adjusted EPS of C$2.28 vs C$2.10 consensus and BMO reporting C$3.96 vs C$3.75 consensus.
- 3.US tariff threats on autos are assessed as unrealistic due to North American supply chain integration, while Canada's real unemployment rate is 6.4% (or 5.4% on US methodology) rather than alleged higher figures.
Table of Contents
- CANADIAN BANKS BEAT EXPECTATIONS
- LIMITED US DATA ON TAP
- CANADA TO ANNOUNCE RETALIATORY TARIFFS AND SUPPORTS TODAY
- OTHER RISKS AND FACT-CHECKING
Report data
Chart 1
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank Adjusted Q3 EPS | 2.28 CAD | Beat consensus expectations of C$2.10. |
| Bank of Montreal Adjusted Q3 EPS | 3.96 CAD | Beat consensus expectations of C$3.75. |
| Canada Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 5.4% if adjusted to US methodology. |
| Canadian Exports to US as % of Canadian GDP | 20% | Roughly two-thirds of exports go to the US and exports are about 30% of Canadian GDP (just over 20% of GDP). |
| WTI Crude Oil Price | 82.33 USD/bbl | Down 3.2% on the day. |
Reports in this series
Daily Points is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.
Part of the Daily Points series — view all 24 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Scotiabank Adjusted Q3 EPS: 2.28 CAD (Q3 2026) · Source: Scotiabank
- Bank of Montreal Adjusted Q3 EPS: 3.96 CAD (Q3 2026) · Source: BMO
- Canada Unemployment Rate: 6.4 % (Current)
- Canadian Exports to US as % of Canadian GDP: 20 % (Current)
- WTI Crude Oil Price: 82.33 USD/bbl (2026-08-25) · Source: Bloomberg