Report published August 27, 2026
Scotiabank Daily FX Update: USD Steadies Ahead of Jackson Hole as RBA Hike Bets Rise (August 27, 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Scotiabank
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Shaun Osborne, Eric Theoret
Finvaulta summarizes Scotiabank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The US dollar is modestly firmer in quiet trading ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance. Major currencies are mixed, with AUD outperforming on rising RBA rate hike expectations and GBP lagging on softening BoE tightening bets.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The USD is trading slightly firmer in quiet conditions ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole remarks.
- 2.RBA tightening expectations have strengthened, with a 25bps hike fully priced into December OIS following recent CPI data.
- 3.EUR trades defensively as French-German bond spreads widen, while GBP underperforms due to softening BoE rate hike expectations.
Table of Contents
- Analyst Team
- Overview
- RBA Tightening Expectations Firm
- USD Edges Firmer as Warsh Awaited
- USDCAD (1.3884)
- USDCAD short-term technicals
- EURUSD (1.1641)
- EURUSD short-term technicals
- GBPUSD (1.3580)
- GBPUSD short-term technicals
- TODAY'S CALENDAR
Report data
RBA Tightening Expectations Firm
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| RBA December Rate Hike Pricing (OIS) | 25 bps | A 25bps hike is fully priced in December OIS now, up from a roughly 50/50 bet on Monday. |
| USDCAD Fair Value Estimate | 1.3879 | Spot USDCAD at 1.3884 is trading very close to Scotiabank's fair value estimate. |
| USDCAD 200-day Moving Average | 1.3841 | USD gains above the 200-day MA give spot a psychological boost. |
Reports in this series
Daily FX Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 27, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- RBA December Rate Hike Pricing (OIS): 25 bps (2026-12) · Source: Macrobond, Scotiabank FICC Strategy
- USDCAD Fair Value Estimate: 1.3879 (2026-08-27) · Source: Scotiabank
- USDCAD 200-day Moving Average: 1.3841 (2026-08-27)