Report published August 25, 2026
Scotiabank Daily FX Update: G10 Currency Analysis & Central Bank Outlook (August 25, 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Scotiabank
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Shaun Osborne, Eric Theoret
Finvaulta summarizes Scotiabank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The USD is steadying in quiet trade ahead of key PCE data and the Jackson Hole symposium, though risk reversal pricing points to persistent soft sentiment. Major currency pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD are broadly consolidating near short-term fair value and key technical support levels.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The USD is mixed against major peers and marking time ahead of upcoming PCE data and the Jackson Hole symposium, with underlying dollar sentiment remaining soft.
- 2.USDCAD trades near fair value (1.3842) as trade tensions ease temporarily with delayed implementation dates for US and Canadian tariffs.
- 3.EURUSD is consolidating in the mid-to-upper 1.16s following strong German IFO and GDP data, with markets pricing ~24 bps of ECB tightening for September.
Table of Contents
- Analyst Team
- Overview
- BBDXY Riskies Point to Soft Sentiment
- USD Steadies But Underlying Sentiment Remains Soft
- USDCAD (1.3863)
- USDCAD short-term technicals
- EURUSD (1.1663)
- EURUSD short-term technicals
- GBPUSD (1.3639)
- GBPUSD short-term technicals
- USDJPY (159.28)
- TODAY’S CALENDAR
Report data
BBDXY Riskies Point to Soft Sentiment
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude price change | -3.0% | Brent crude price drop weighing on the Norwegian Krone (NOK) |
| USDCAD spot rate | 1.3863 | Current spot rate trading slightly above the 200-day MA |
| USDCAD Fair Value Estimate | 1.3842 | Scotiabank fair value model estimate for USDCAD |
| EURUSD spot rate | 1.1663 | EURUSD spot rate quietly consolidating |
| EURUSD Fair Value Estimate | 1.1622 | Scotiabank narrow fair value estimate for EURUSD |
Reports in this series
Daily FX Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.
Part of the Daily FX Update series — view all 23 editions
Looking for the latest edition? G10 FX Daily (Sep 2, 2026)
- May 10G10 FX Daily
- May 11G10 FX Daily
- May 13G10 FX Daily
- May 21G10 FX Daily
- May 25G10 FX Daily
- May 26G10 FX Daily
- May 28G10 FX Daily
- Jun 1G10 FX Daily
- Jun 2G10 FX Daily
- Jun 4G10 FX Daily
- Jun 6G10 FX Daily
- Jun 8G10 FX Daily
- Jun 9G10 FX Daily
- Jun 11G10 FX Daily
- Jun 17G10 FX Daily
- Jun 29G10 FX Daily
- Jul 13G10 FX Daily
- Jul 14G10 FX Daily
- Aug 17G10 FX Daily
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brent crude price change: -3.0 % (session)
- USDCAD spot rate: 1.3863 (spot)
- USDCAD Fair Value Estimate: 1.3842 (2026-08-25) · Source: Scotiabank FICC Strategy
- EURUSD spot rate: 1.1663 (spot)
- EURUSD Fair Value Estimate: 1.1622 (2026-08-25) · Source: Scotiabank FICC Strategy