Report published September 24, 2026
The Great Rewiring: 5-Year Expected Returns 2027-2031 – Robeco Research Outlook
Robeco · September 24, 2026
Robeco's 5-Year Expected Returns report (2027-2031) outlines 'The Great Rewiring,' arguing that global trade, capital, and production are shifting from asset-light efficiency to resilient capital deepening. This structural transformation prolongs the economic expansion, pushes neutral interest rates higher, and broadens market opportunities toward international equities, real estate, and commodities.
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Finvaulta summarizes Robeco's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The global economy is entering 'The Great Rewiring' across trade (efficiency to resilience), capital (asset-light to capital deepening), and production (automation to augmentation), prolonging the economic expansion.
- 2.Capital deepening driven by AI infrastructure, electrification, defense, and manufacturing reshoring could push gross capital formation toward 30% of global GDP by 2031, placing upward pressure on neutral interest rates.
- 3.Equity markets will transition from a high-P/E multiple-expansion regime to a lower-P/E, higher-EPS environment where value transfers from AI infrastructure enablers to AI adopters.
Table of Contents
- 1. Introduction
- 2. Macro
- 2.1 The rewiring of trade: From efficiency to resilience
- 2.2 The rewiring of capital: From asset-light to capital deepening
- 2.3 The rewiring of production: Man versus machine
- 2.4 Scenarios
- 3. Climate
- 3.1 Developments in transition risk
- 3.2 The price of carbon emissions across the world
- 3.3 Physical climate risk
- 3.4 The impact of climate change on asset classes
- 3.5 Summary
- Chokepoints and energy security 2.0
- Opportunity, risk and selectivity in a maturing market
- A world of different destinies
- Beyond sustainability: Generalized 3D investing
- 4. Expected returns
- 4.1 Cash
- 4.2 Government bonds
- 4.3 Corporate bonds
- 4.4 Equity markets
- 4.5 Real estate
- 4.6 Commodities
Report data
Table 4.1: Five-year return forecast for the main asset classes
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Developed market equities 5-year annualized expected return (EUR) | 7.00% | Base case expected geometric annualized return for euro investors, up from 6.00% in the prior 2026-2030 forecast. |
| Emerging market equities 5-year annualized expected return (EUR) | 8.00% | Base case expected return for emerging equities in EUR, up from 7.50% previously. |
| Global listed real estate 5-year annualized expected return (EUR) | 7.00% | Upgraded from 5.50% to 7.00%, above steady-state for the first time since 2014. |
| Developed global government bonds (hedged) expected return (EUR) | 4.00% | Base case expected return in EUR, upgraded from 3.00% in the 2026-2030 forecast. |
| Average Federal Reserve policy rate | 4.25% | Base case average Fed policy rate projection, raised by 30 bps reflecting a higher neutral rate. |
Reports in this series
Expected Returns is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
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