Report published September 1, 2026
Reichmuth & Co Check-Up: Navigating AI Bubble Risks and Portfolio Strategy (September 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Reichmuth & Co
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Remy Reichmuth (General Partner), Christof Reichmuth (General Partner), Patrick Ernst (Head of Research), Silvan Betschart (Chief Investment Management), Yücel Erincik (Head Investor Relations Infrastruktur)
Finvaulta summarizes Reichmuth & Co's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Reichmuth & Co warns that extreme equity valuations, record margin debt, and AI-driven euphoria mirror late-cycle bubble conditions. The bank recommends taking profits in overstretched US tech stocks, maintaining liquidity in USD/EUR, focusing on high-quality dividend Swiss equities, and considering real assets like aircraft engine leasing.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Valuation metrics indicate mounting AI bubble risks: Shiller P/E is near 41, the Buffett Indicator exceeds 230%, and margin debt has reached USD 1.53 trillion.
- 2.The AI evolution is transitioning from Phase 1 (hardware and infrastructure) to Phase 2 (applications and integration across sectors), meaning investors should seek broad efficiency beneficiaries rather than pure tech hype.
- 3.Switzerland and the Swiss franc offer vital capital preservation and safe-haven qualities, while USD/EUR investors should hold higher cash reserves and trim concentration in expensive US tech equities.
Table of Contents
- Editorial
- How AI is changing the world economy
- The AI Evolution
- Time for a strategy check?
- Aviation on the rise
- Real-world insights: A pension solution that fits
Report data
Comparison of various market crises: market correction and corresponding recovery period
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Shiller P/E ratio | 41.0 ratio | Close to the dot-com peak of 44 and more than double the long-term average |
| Buffett Indicator (market cap to GDP) | 230.0% | Higher than in any previous bubble in history, including 2000 and 2021 |
| Margin debt | 1.53 USD trillion | Record high margin debt showing bull market fueled by borrowed money |
| Aviation engine leasing target IRR | 11.0% | Target IRR range of 11-13% in USD for modern aircraft engine leasing platform |
| Aviation engine leasing target cash flow yield | 6.0 % p.a. | Expected annual cash flow yield from engine leasing platform |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Shiller P/E ratio: 41.0 ratio (September 2026)
- Buffett Indicator (market cap to GDP): 230.0 % (September 2026)
- Margin debt: 1.53 USD trillion (September 2026)
- Aviation engine leasing target IRR: 11.0 % · Source: Reichmuth Infrastructure
- Aviation engine leasing target cash flow yield: 6.0 % p.a. · Source: Reichmuth Infrastructure