Report published September 25, 2026

Raymond James: Up & Adam – Labor Resilience, 5%+ Treasury Yields, and Financial Sector Headwinds

Raymond James · September 25, 2026

Raymond James highlights resilient US labor data that keeps the Fed hawkish as 10-year Treasury yields reach 5.20%, offering generationally attractive yields. Meanwhile, equity earnings revisions remain positive, but the firm advises against bottom-fishing in the underperforming Financials sector.

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Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Treasury yields across the 5- to 30-year curve are firmly above 5%, presenting attractive generational income locking opportunities, especially at the short end.
2.Despite the S&P 500 Financials sector falling into negative YTD territory, Raymond James advises against overweighting due to margin pressure from a flatter curve, brokerage headwinds, property insurer risks, and an above-average 2.3x price-to-book valuation.
3.Labor market resilience, demonstrated by initial jobless claims below 200k and strong PMI employment components, supports consumer spending but keeps the Federal Reserve focused on hawkish inflation control.

Labor Market Strength Supports Consumer Spending—But Also Helps Explain The Fed's Hawkishness
With Trade Truce Extended, Trump-Xi Meeting May Pave The Way For Further Progress On Trade
As Earnings Estimates Rise, Analysts Are Indicating Optimism In Equity Fundamentals
As Oil Prices Bounce, Treasury Yields Rise Yet Again
Financials Sector Has Turned Negative On A YTD Basis—Is This A Time To Step In?
Sector Performance
Chart of the Day: Financials Lose Support

Report data

Chart of the Day: Financials Lose Support — as of September 24, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
10-Year US Treasury Yield	5.19%	Closed at 5.19% and pushed to 5.20%, within 5 bps of its 2007 peak.
Initial Jobless Claims	200 k	Demonstrates resilience of the US labor market.
US-China Trade Truce Extension	2 months	Agreed ahead of the Xi-Trump bilateral meeting.
S&P 500 EPS Growth Consensus Forecast	15.0%	Analysts expect 15% EPS growth in 2027, well above the long-term average of ~7%.
S&P 500 Financials Price-to-Book Ratio	2.3 multiple	Valuation remains elevated despite the sector falling into negative YTD territory.