Report published September 24, 2026
Raymond James Up & Adam: Treasury Yields Surge, Record PMI Expansion, and Narrow AI Leadership
Raymond James · September 24, 2026
US Treasury yields hit multi-decade peaks amid strong PMI expansion and hawkish Fed expectations, leaving equity breadth constrained to AI beneficiaries. Raymond James believes markets are overpricing future rate hikes and anticipates lower yields over the next 12 months.
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Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US Treasury yields surged to multi-decade highs (10-year at 5.10% and 30-year at 5.40%) on strong PMI expansion data, hawkish Fed commentary, and weak 5-year auction demand; however, Raymond James views market pricing of rate hikes as excessive and expects yields to drop over the next 12 months.
- 2.US Composite PMI reached 58.4 in September, indicating the fastest economic expansion since July 2021, but input costs hit their highest mark since October 2022, highlighting persistent inflation pressures.
- 3.Equity market resilience is narrowly concentrated in AI beneficiaries, with 9 of 11 S&P 500 sectors down month-to-date and Russell 2000 down 7.5% from its peak, keeping leadership narrow until bond yields stabilize.
Table of Contents
- PMI Data Indicates The Fastest Expansion For The US Economy Since 2021, As Cost Pressures Intensify
- Equity Resilience Is Concentrated Among AI Beneficiaries
- As The White House Ponders A Ban On Diesel Exports, What Could It Mean For The Fuel Market?
- As Markets Price In A More Hawkish Trajectory For The Fed, Treasury Yields Set Multi-Decade Highs
- With 40 Days Until The Midterms Democrats' Lead Is Expanding
Report data
Chart of the Day: Senate Stakes — as of September 23, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Global US Composite PMI | 58.4 index level | Marked the fastest expansion since July 2021 and topped consensus expectations. |
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | 5.10% | Surged to a 19-year high following strong PMI data and weak auction results. |
| 30-Year US Treasury Yield | 5.40% | Reached a level not seen since 2004. |
| US Retail Diesel National Average | 6.50 USD/gallon | Record high national average diesel fuel price prompting consideration of export ban. |
| Democrats Senate Win Probability | 66% | Polymarket betting probability of Democrats controlling the Senate after the midterms. |
Reports in this series
Up & Adam is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
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