Report published September 1, 2026

Raymond James Daily Update: Treasury Yields Hit 19-Month High Amid Oil Spike and Small-Cap Weakness

Raymond James · September 1, 2026

Raymond James highlights fading momentum in small-cap equities relative to large caps alongside rising 10-year Treasury yields reaching 4.75% driven by elevated oil prices. Geopolitically, US-Iran airstrikes keep attention on Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, while rising allied defense spending supports the Industrials sector.

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Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Small-cap leadership is losing momentum as the Russell 2000 breaks below its relative uptrend versus the S&P 500, supporting a rotation back toward large caps.
2.Rising oil prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.75% (a 19-month high), but Raymond James expects the Fed to look through energy prices and keep rates unchanged in September.
3.Geopolitical tensions escalated with US and Iranian airstrikes, but oil market reaction was moderate (+3.3% to ~$86) as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary constraint.

Previous Close
Futures
Today's Events
Dallas Concludes August's Regional Surveys On Upbeat Note—ISM Manufacturing On Deck At 10:00 AM ET
As The US And Iran Exchange Airstrikes, Market Attention Remains Fixed On The Strait Of Hormuz
Rising Oil Prices Send the 10-Year Treasury Yield to a New 19-Month High
Japan's Record Defense Proposal Highlights a Growing Global Spending Trend
After Strong Outperformance YTD, Small Caps May Be Losing Momentum
Sector Performance
Chart of the Day: Small-Cap Momentum Is Fading

Report data

Chart of the Day: Small-Cap Momentum Is Fading — as of August 31, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	11.6 index	Surged from 1.3 in July to 11.6 in August, marking the strongest expansion since January 2025.
WTI Crude Price	86 USD/barrel	Oil prices rose moderately after US-Iran airstrikes exchange.
10-Year US Treasury Yield	4.75%	Yield reached its highest level since January 2025 driven by energy price gains.
30-Year Mortgage Rate	6.73%	Climbed near a one-year high.
Market Implied Odds of September Fed Rate Hike	67%	Odds that higher energy prices will cause Fed to hike in September.