Report published August 17, 2026
Raymond James Research: Macro Trends, Fed Policy & Sector Strategy (August 17, 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Raymond James
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 14, 2026
Authors / editors: Larry Adam
Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Raymond James views recent dips in retail sales and consumer sentiment as temporary pauses rather than broad slowdowns, supporting expectations for the Fed to remain on hold through 2026. The firm maintains a preference for Technology and high-quality investment grade bonds, while warning against chasing Financials due to elevated valuations.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Soft July retail sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment drop reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold through 2026.
- 2.Investment grade corporate bond demand easily absorbed more than $130B in issuance MTD, with spreads tightly anchored between 76-79 bps.
- 3.Despite an 11-week winning streak in the Financials sector, high valuations (~2.3x price-to-book) warrant caution rather than chasing the rally.
Table of Contents
- Retail Sales Hint At Consumer Fatigue, But One Month Doesn't Make A Trend
- Consumer Sentiment Slips As Americans Grow More Cautious On The Outlook
- Artificial Intelligence's 38-Year Journey Highlights The Enduring Power of Innovation
- Investment Grade Bond Spreads Remain Below 80 Bps Despite Unseasonally Heavy Issuance
- Financials Notch Their Longest Winning Streak In Decades, But We Wouldn't Chase It
- Disclosures
Report data
Chart of the Day: Pricey Multiples — as of August 14, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | Headline retail sales decline, the sharpest decline since May 2025. |
| Retail Sales Control Group MoM | -0.4% | Control group retail sales dipped in July. |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | 51.0 index_points | Fell in August, missing expectations and giving back nearly half of the June/July gains. |
| Investment Grade Bond Issuance MTD | 130.0 USD_billion | On track to surpass the August record of $136 billion set in 2020. |
| Investment Grade Spreads MTD Range | 76.0 bps | IG spreads holding tight in the 76-79 bps range MTD despite heavy issuance. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Retail Sales MoM: -0.6 % (2026-07)
- Retail Sales Control Group MoM: -0.4 % (2026-07)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51.0 index_points (2026-08)
- Investment Grade Bond Issuance MTD: 130.0 USD_billion (2026-08)
- Investment Grade Spreads MTD Range: 76.0 bps (2026-08)