Up and Adam

Raymond James CIO Larry Adam reports on the expected softening of CPI to 2.3% YoY and the imminent partial DHS shutdown. He also highlights a study showing that the US economy bears 90% of tariff costs while noting that the broadening market rally is historically bullish.

Key Takeaways

• 1.January CPI is expected to show a 2.3% YoY headline rate, the slowest since April 2025, though base effects from a previous shutdown distort the data.
• 2.A partial Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown is imminent, likely leading to airport disruptions as TSA and the Coast Guard face funding lapses.
• 3.A NY Fed study indicates that the US economy absorbs 86-94% of tariff costs, with most of that burden likely passed through to US consumers.

Table of Contents

• CPI Release At 8:30 AM ET: Softer Headline Print May Be Distorted By Base Effects
• The Clock Has Run Out: What Will A Partial DHS Shutdown Look Like?
• How Much Of The Tariff Costs Are Shouldered By The US Economy? NY Fed Study Says: Nearly 90%
• As Performance Broadens, Nearly 20% of S&P 500 Stocks Are At 52-Week Highs
• With Valentine's Day On Deck Tomorrow, Can Investors Count On Sweet Returns Ahead?
• Disclosures

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