Report published September 25, 2026
Slowing Down the Economy? There Is a Better Way: Raymond James Weekly Economics
Raymond James · September 25, 2026
Raymond James argues that persisting inflation stems from supply-side, fiscal, and geopolitical factors rather than broad consumer demand, creating an inefficient policy mix when met with further monetary tightening. Economic growth is characterized by a K-shaped divergence where affluent households drive consumer spending, while key investment in AI and infrastructure risks being suppressed by high rates.
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Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Current inflation is primarily driven by supply-side shocks, fiscal expansion, geopolitics, and infrastructure costs rather than broad excess consumer demand.
- 2.The economy exhibits a K-shaped pattern where spending resilience and pricing power are heavily concentrated among affluent, higher-income households.
- 3.A policy mix of restrictive monetary policy alongside stimulative fiscal policy risks curbing productive investments like AI, data centers, and energy infrastructure.
Table of Contents
- Thoughts of the Week
- Slowing Down The Economy? There Is A Better Way
- In Case of Emergency, Don’t Ask Politicians For Solutions To Economic Issues
- Forecast Table
- Economic Releases
Report data
Construction Put In Place: Total vs. Data Centers (2022, Index = 100) — as of September 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| New Home Sales | 684000 units (SAAR) | New home sales beat expectations of 615,000, rising to 684,000 SAAR in August. |
| New Home Median Sales Price | 393700 USD | Median sales price fell to $393,700 from $417,900 a year earlier due to affordability pressures. |
| Real GDP Growth (Forecast) | 2.3% | Raymond James forecast for full-year 2026 US Real GDP growth. |
| PCE Price Index (Forecast) | 3.6% | Raymond James forecast for 2026 PCE Price Index inflation. |
| US Share of Global Seaborne Diesel Exports | 20% | The US accounts for roughly one-fifth of global seaborne diesel export supply. |
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Weekly Economics is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.
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