Weekly Economics

Latest edition · October 2, 2026

weekly economics thoughts of the week

Weaker-than-expected September employment growth of 29,000 gives the Federal Reserve flexibility to pause rate increases at its October FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, BEA revisions revealed significant upward adjustments to GDP and Gross Domestic Income, demonstrating how elevated interest rates disproportionately boost interest income for wealthier households.

Raymond James' Weekly Economics report highlights a slowing U.S. labor market that affords the Federal Reserve room to hold interest rates unchanged at the October FOMC meeting before reassessing in December. September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 with a 60,000 downward revision to prior months, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Simultaneously, BEA national account revisions showed stronger Q2 GDP of 2.2% and substantial upward revisions to Gross Domestic Income, primarily driven by previously undercounted net interest income. This dynamic suggests monetary tightening may paradoxically be reinforcing a K-shaped expansion by boosting cash-flow earnings for asset-rich households.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 alongside 60,000 in net downward revisions to prior months, allowing the Fed room to hold interest rates steady at the October FOMC meeting.
• 2.BEA benchmark revisions upgraded Q2 GDP growth to 2.2% and revealed massive upward revisions to Gross Domestic Income driven by undercounted net interest income.
• 3.Higher policy rates are reinforcing a K-shaped economic divide by boosting interest income for wealthy households while tightening conditions for the rest.

What this series covers

• Thoughts of the Week
• Economic Growth Revised Higher; Gross Incomes Revised Even Higher
• Forecast Table
• Economic Releases

Edition archive

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