Up & Adam

Latest edition · September 1, 2026

Up and Adam 1

Raymond James highlights fading momentum in small-cap equities relative to large caps alongside rising 10-year Treasury yields reaching 4.75% driven by elevated oil prices. Geopolitically, US-Iran airstrikes keep attention on Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, while rising allied defense spending supports the Industrials sector.

In this daily update, Raymond James examines key macro and market developments for September 1, 2026. Regional manufacturing surveys showed strength in August via the Dallas Fed index ahead of the ISM Manufacturing release. Meanwhile, US-Iran airstrikes elevated WTI crude by 3.3% to ~$86/barrel, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to a 19-month high of 4.75% as markets price a 67% chance of a September Fed hike; however, the firm still expects the Fed to hold rates steady. Technically, the Russell 2000 has broken below its relative uptrend versus the S&P 500, indicating small-cap leadership is weakening and supporting large-cap positioning. Finally, record defense spending proposals in Japan reinforce the firm's bullish view on the Industrials sector.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Small-cap leadership is losing momentum as the Russell 2000 breaks below its relative uptrend versus the S&P 500, supporting a rotation back toward large caps.
• 2.Rising oil prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.75% (a 19-month high), but Raymond James expects the Fed to look through energy prices and keep rates unchanged in September.
• 3.Geopolitical tensions escalated with US and Iranian airstrikes, but oil market reaction was moderate (+3.3% to ~$86) as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary constraint.

What this series covers

• Previous Close
• Futures
• Today's Events
• Dallas Concludes August's Regional Surveys On Upbeat Note—ISM Manufacturing On Deck At 10:00 AM ET
• As The US And Iran Exchange Airstrikes, Market Attention Remains Fixed On The Strait Of Hormuz
• Rising Oil Prices Send the 10-Year Treasury Yield to a New 19-Month High
• Japan's Record Defense Proposal Highlights a Growing Global Spending Trend
• After Strong Outperformance YTD, Small Caps May Be Losing Momentum
• Sector Performance
• Chart of the Day: Small-Cap Momentum Is Fading
• Disclosures

Edition archive

• Up and Adam 1

  September 1, 2026

• Up and Adam

  August 28, 2026

• Up and Adam

  August 26, 2026

• Up and Adam

  August 25, 2026

• Up and Adam

  August 17, 2026