Report published September 28, 2026

Municipal Bond Investor Weekly: Taxes on November Ballots: What Muni Investors Should Watch – Raymond James

Raymond James · September 28, 2026

Municipal yields surged across the curve last week, pushing the 30-year AAA benchmark yield above 5% for the first time since 2011 ahead of more than $10 billion in expected new issuance. Meanwhile, municipal investors face critical upcoming November ballot measures across several states that could curb property and income tax revenues supporting local issuers.

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Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Municipal yields surged last week, with the 1- and 2-year AAA benchmark yields rising over 50 basis points and the 30-year AAA yield topping 5% for the first time since 2011.
2.Voters will decide on twelve property tax and eight income/wealth tax measures in November, which could curtail local revenues or cap assessment growth across states such as Florida, Oklahoma, Washington, California, North Carolina, and Colorado.
3.Muni investors should focus on underlying revenue pledges and credit quality, as tax changes usually take time to materialize, allowing municipalities room to adjust budgets and find alternative revenues.

Taxes on November Ballots: What Muni Investors Should Watch
Yield Curve Comparison
Market Update
Illustrative Portfolios (Par Value of $1 Million)
Historical Yields
New Issue Calendar

Report data

Illustrative Portfolios (Par Value of $1 Million)

Metric	Estimate	Context
30-Year AAA Municipal Yield	5.0%	Reached over 5% for the first time since 2011.
AAA Municipal Curve Yield Change	21 - 35 bps	Benchmark AAA municipal curve yields surged 21 to 35 basis points.
1-Year and 2-Year Municipal Yield Increase	50 bps	Largest moves were seen on the short end of the curve.
Expected Municipal New Issuance	10 billion USD	Expected municipal new issuance volume coming to market.
Treasury Yield Change	5 - 16 bps	Treasury yields moved up across the curve with larger moves from 5 to 30 years.