Report published September 1, 2026
Raymond James Monthly CIO View (September 2026): Strategy Snapshot & Market Outlook
Raymond James · September 1, 2026
Raymond James maintains a constructive outlook on US equities, forecasting an S&P 500 target of 7,650 for year-end 2026 and 8,200 by mid-2027 backed by durable earnings and steady economic growth. The firm anticipates the Fed will remain on hold despite market rate-hike expectations, with 10-year Treasury yields trading in the 4.25%-4.50% range.
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Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US economy remains on solid footing with projected GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while core disinflation continues toward 3.5% PCE by year-end and 2.0% in 2027.
- 2.Despite hawkish market pricing for Fed rate hikes, Raymond James expects the Fed to remain on hold through mid-2027, forecasting 10-year Treasury yields in a 4.25%-4.50% range.
- 3.US equities are supported by corporate earnings fundamentals, underpinning S&P 500 targets of 7,650 for year-end 2026 and 8,200 by mid-2027, with Technology as the top sector pick.
Table of Contents
- Returns by Asset Class | August and 2026
- Global Economy | Mixed US Economic Growth Signals, But Price Pressures Are Easing
- Equities | Strong Fundamentals Drive Stocks Higher Despite Geopolitical Turbulence
- History Points To Seasonal Headwinds For Stocks In September
- Fixed Income | Income Gains Offset Price Pressures From Modestly Higher Yields
- Commodities & Currencies | The Rally In Commodities Continues
- Summary | Key Year-End 2026 And 12-Month Views
Report data
Returns by Asset Class | August and 2026 — as of August 31, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI YoY | 2.5% | Lowest level since March 2021, driven by slowing shelter inflation. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 index | Highest reading since May 2022, pointing to sustained manufacturing expansion. |
| S&P 500 2Q26 Earnings Growth YoY | 51% | Reinforced fundamental strength, inclusive of one-time investment gains. |
| S&P 500 Year-End 2026 Target | 7650 index points | Based on $326 EPS and ~23.5x P/E multiple. |
| S&P 500 Mid-2027 Target | 8200 index points | Based on $356 EPS and ~23x P/E multiple. |
Reports in this series
Monthly CIO View is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.
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