Global Daily

Latest edition · September 30, 2026

global daily hung drawn and third quartered roll on q4

RaboResearch reviews a turbulent Q3 2026 characterized by surging bond yields, rising geopolitical conflict, and oil climbing to $104. Heading into Q4, markets face persistent central bank tightening, geoeconomic frictions over tech and rare earths, and rising political populism.

As Q3 2026 draws to a close, RaboResearch highlights a quarter marked by severe market shocks and widespread geopolitical conflict across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Sovereign bond yields surged globally—with US 30-year yields touching 5.57%, their highest since 2002—as central banks including the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and RBA continued to raise rates. Meanwhile, Brent crude pushed past $104/bbl, driving a strong correlation with Treasury yields not seen since 1990. Looking forward to Q4, the report warns of mounting risks in global trade, rare-earth supply chain weaponization, escalating AI-related regulatory and energy constraints, and political populism ahead of the US midterms.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Q3 2026 proved to be an exceptionally volatile quarter dominated by geopolitical escalation, rising bond yields across sovereign curves, and crushed hopes for 'lower for longer' monetary policy.
• 2.Global bond yields witnessed dramatic surges in Q3, with US 30-year yields reaching 5.57%—the highest level since 2002—amid ongoing central bank rate hikes from the RBA, ECB, BOJ, and Fed.
• 3.Energy pressures surged as Brent oil touched $104 and crack spreads expanded, establishing the tightest correlation between oil prices and US Treasury yields since 1990.

What this series covers

• Market comment
• Day ahead

Edition archive

• global daily hung drawn and third quartered roll on q4

  September 30, 2026

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  September 28, 2026

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  September 24, 2026

• global daily stalemate not checkmate

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