Report published September 30, 2026
Hung, Drawn, and Third-Quartered: Roll on Q4 – RaboResearch Global Market Analysis
RaboResearch · September 30, 2026
RaboResearch reviews a turbulent Q3 2026 characterized by surging bond yields, rising geopolitical conflict, and oil climbing to $104. Heading into Q4, markets face persistent central bank tightening, geoeconomic frictions over tech and rare earths, and rising political populism.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Q3 2026 proved to be an exceptionally volatile quarter dominated by geopolitical escalation, rising bond yields across sovereign curves, and crushed hopes for 'lower for longer' monetary policy.
- 2.Global bond yields witnessed dramatic surges in Q3, with US 30-year yields reaching 5.57%—the highest level since 2002—amid ongoing central bank rate hikes from the RBA, ECB, BOJ, and Fed.
- 3.Energy pressures surged as Brent oil touched $104 and crack spreads expanded, establishing the tightest correlation between oil prices and US Treasury yields since 1990.
Table of Contents
- Market comment
- Day ahead
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 30-year Treasury yield | 5.57% | Reached highest level since 2002 during Q3 yield surge. |
| Brent crude oil price | 104 USD/bbl | Brent oil surged over Q3, while the 3-2-1 crack spread expanded from $17 to $62. |
| Australian CPI Headline (YoY) | 4.0% | August CPI came in double target at 4.0% y-o-y and 0.4% m-o-m. |
| China Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 index | China's manufacturing PMI reported in-line at 50.1. |
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