Report published September 23, 2026
Where Will This All/Diesel End Up? Geopolitics, Energy Markets, and Export Controls
Rabobank · September 23, 2026
Rabobank's Michael Every highlights how markets are increasingly driven by geopolitical negotiations and conflict rather than traditional economic calendars. The commentary details the potential for US refined product export bans and regional trade bloc formation to upend energy markets and macro forecasts.
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Finvaulta summarizes Rabobank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Financial markets are currently driven by geopolitical bargaining and grand strategy rather than routine economic data calendar releases or central bank rhetoric.
- 2.The US administration is evaluating partial or total diesel export bans and geoeconomic tools like the Defense Production Act to curb domestic fuel prices.
- 3.Global energy and trade flows are fragmenting into regional, self-reliant bilateral or plurilateral blocs rather than operating as purely integrated, free global markets.
Table of Contents
- Market comment
- Day ahead
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation outlook threshold cited by Federal Reserve | 2% | The Fed's Collins noted an increased likelihood that inflation remains notably above the 2% target. |
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