Global Daily

Latest edition · October 6, 2026

global daily war er for longer

US Treasuries slumped to early-2002 yield levels amid soaring national security expenditures and ongoing geopolitical turmoil across the Middle East, Ukraine, and Latin America. At the same time, European leaders are proposing aggressive trade defense mechanisms against China, solidifying a 'war-er for longer' paradigm.

RaboResearch highlights that US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields have climbed to 5.31% and 5.67% respectively, marking the return to 20th-century-style rates as the geopolitical consensus collapses. While the US Nasdaq touched record highs driven by AI/SI investments, rising military spending and supply chain disruptions across the Red Sea and Black Sea are keeping upward pressure on bond yields. Concurrently, France and Germany are pressing the European Commission for trade 'kill switch' tools and defensive trade measures against Chinese imports, further entrenching structural geopolitical and geoeconomic conflict.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.US Treasury yields have surged to levels not seen since early 2002 (10-year at 5.31% and 30-year at 5.67%), signaling the definitive demise of the 'lower for longer' regime amid intense geopolitical and fiscal strains.
• 2.Global geopolitical conflict is escalating, with direct military action in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb, Iranian tanker strikes, and European trade hawkishness targeting China, reinforcing a 'war-er for longer' inflationary environment.
• 3.European leaders (Macron and Merz) are pushing for aggressive trade defense mechanisms and 'European preference' against China, mirroring long-standing US trade statecraft and risking an all-out trade war.

What this series covers

• Market comment
• Day ahead

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