Report published September 24, 2026

Frenemies – Rabobank Global Daily: US-China Relations, Oil Surge, and Market Volatility

Rabobank · September 24, 2026

The US-China summit highlights cordial rhetoric despite deep structural divides across trade and AI, while surging Brent crude to $107/bbl drives US yields and the USD higher. Meanwhile, Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50%, facing FX pressure as interest rate differentials narrow against the Fed.

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Finvaulta summarizes Rabobank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The US-China summit presents a friendly veneer between Trump and Xi, but core tensions in trade, technology/AI, and geopolitics remain unresolved, with the trade-war truce extended to January 10, 2027.
2.Surging Brent crude oil (reaching $107/bbl) is feeding a pipeline of higher Treasury yields and a stronger USD, with US 10-year yields touching 5.16% and markets pricing higher odds of Fed rate hikes.
3.Banxico held its overnight rate at 6.50%, but policy divergence following the Fed's recent rate hike puts pressure on USD/MXN, with 3-month implied volatility rising to 10.3%.

Market comment
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Report data

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Metric	Estimate	Context
Brent Crude Oil Price	107 USD/bbl	Brent crude rose another $5 after rising $5 the prior day to close at $107/bbl.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield	5.16%	Reached levels not seen since 2002.
US 2-Year Treasury Yield Resistance	4.90%	Struggled to break above resistance at 4.90% but remains near Wednesday's two-year high.
Fed October Meeting Rate Hike Probability	68%	OIS curve pricing implied by market participants.
Banxico Overnight Policy Rate	6.50%	Banxico held its policy rate steady despite recent Fed hikes.