Recurring series
One River Asset ManagementWeekend Notes
Finvaulta tracks 4 editions of Weekend Notes from One River Asset Management, published between May 17, 2026 and October 4, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.
Latest edition · October 4, 2026
One River Peters wknd notes 4 Oct 2026
Eric Peters reviews the unprecedented scale of the US AI infrastructure buildout, arguing that projected $2-$2.5 trillion in capex will propel nominal GDP to 7% and crowd out bond markets. Despite soft US economic data, 10-year Treasury yields pushed higher amid unrelenting demand for capital.
In this weekend note, Eric Peters discusses the unprecedented capital expenditure surge supporting artificial intelligence, comparing current existential IPO warnings to Alan Greenspan's 1996 irrational exuberance remark. A featured portfolio manager argues that AI's deflationary output phase remains years away, while the current input buildout will see $2-$2.5 trillion in capex, boosting nominal GDP toward 7% and forcing yields higher via capital crowding out. Meanwhile, quantitative firms deploying billion-scenario simulations are expanding profit margins, complicating return generation for traditional multi-manager hedge funds. Weekly and quarterly cross-asset performance summaries round out the commentary.
Read the latest edition in fullKey takeaways from the latest edition
- 1.The AI infrastructure buildout represents the largest investment cycle in US history, with capex projected at $2.0T-$2.5T, which could drive nominal US GDP to 7% and cause massive crowding out in fixed income markets.
- 2.Despite soft macro prints (weaker inflation, soft nonfarm payrolls, rising unemployment), 10-year Treasury yields continue to climb due to massive capital demand for funding technology buildouts.
- 3.Frontier quantitative market makers expanding scenario modeling from millions to billions of simulations are expanding margins and making it increasingly challenging for multi-strategy hedge funds to generate alpha.
What this series covers
- Overall
- Alpha
- Alpha II
- Alpha III
- Alpha IV
- Alpha V
- Anecdote
- Week-in-Review
- Weekly Close
- Sept Monthly Close
- Q3 Quarterly Close
- Year-to-Date Close
- YTD Equity Index Returns
Edition archive
Series at a glance
- Editions tracked
- 4
- First edition
- May 17, 2026
- Latest edition
- October 4, 2026