Report published September 24, 2026
Riksbank Review: Hiking Mood – Nordea Analysis
Nordea · September 24, 2026
The Riksbank kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected but lifted its rate path, strongly signalling an impending hike before year-end. Nordea continues to forecast hikes to 2.00% in November 2026 and 2.25% in February 2027, with risks skewed toward faster and higher increases.
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Finvaulta summarizes Nordea's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% but raised its rate path, signalling an expected rate hike before the end of 2026, most likely in November.
- 2.Nordea maintains its baseline forecast of a 25 bp hike to 2.00% in November 2026 and another hike to 2.25% in February 2027 as the terminal rate, though risks are tilted toward earlier and additional hikes.
- 3.The Executive Board decision was unexpectedly unanimous, with no dissenting vote from Deputy Governor Seim.
Report data
Macroeconomic Forecast Comparison Table (Nordea vs. Riksbank) — as of September 24, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Current policy rate decision announced by the Riksbank |
| Implied Probability of Rate Hike in November | 65% | Estimated probability of a rate hike in November derived from the Riksbank's revised rate path |
| Riksbank Rate Path Peak | 2.42% | Projected peak of the Riksbank rate path |
| Riksbank Rate Path End-Point | 2.35% | Lifted by 0.15 percentage points from 2.20% in Q2 2029 in the June report |
| Riksbank GDP Growth Forecast (cal. adjusted) | 2.6 % y/y | Revised upward from 1.9% in June 2026 forecast |
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