Report published August 16, 2026
Nordea Rates Strategy: Riksbank Preview and Monetary Policy Outlook (August 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Nordea
- Report date
- August 16, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Torbjörn Isaksson
Finvaulta summarizes Nordea's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Nordea expects the Riksbank to hold the policy rate at 1.75% on 20 August with unchanged guidance for the remainder of 2026. However, potential rate hikes by the ECB and other global central banks could weaken the SEK and increase the probability of an earlier Riksbank rate hike.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Riksbank is expected to keep the policy rate on hold at 1.75% at its 20 August interim meeting and maintain the rate guidance from its June report.
- 2.Domestic underlying inflation and services inflation remain moderate, giving the Riksbank room to maintain a wait-and-see stance despite rising goods and energy costs.
- 3.The risk of an earlier rate hike is primarily driven by external central banks (ECB, Fed, Norges Bank) tightening policy, which could weaken the SEK and generate imported inflation.
Table of Contents
- On hold with unchanged guidance
- Inflation rising from a favourable starting point
- Forecast risks remain – but domestic conditions are more reassuring
- Higher probability of a rate hike
- Improving economic conditions
- Summary
Report data
Inflation and Riksbank forecast path
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Current policy rate expected to remain unchanged at August 20 meeting and for rest of 2026. |
| Long-term Inflation Expectations | 2.0% | Long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at target, with company expectations at 2% for coming year. |
| Crude Oil Price | 90 USD/bbl | Oil price level supporting expectations of ECB policy tightening. |
| Sweden Calendar-Adjusted GDP Growth Forecast | 2% | Projected below 2% in June report, but recent indicators suggest stronger growth. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Riksbank Policy Rate: 1.75 % (2026) · Source: Riksbank
- Long-term Inflation Expectations: 2.0 % (2026) · Source: SCB / Riksbank
- Crude Oil Price: 90 USD/bbl (August 2026)
- Sweden Calendar-Adjusted GDP Growth Forecast: 2 % (2026) · Source: Riksbank
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