Nordea
Report published September 24, 2026
Norges Bank Review: Higher for Longer – Nordea Rates Strategy
Nordea · September 24, 2026
Norges Bank increased its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.5% and signaled a 40% chance of another hike in the coming half year. The central bank lifted its rate path and neutral rate estimate, forecasting no rate cuts prior to 2028.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.5%, signaling a 40% probability of an additional hike within the next six months.
- 2.Rate cuts are not projected before 2028, with the policy rate path raised by close to 40 bps at the peak and r* revised up from 3.0% to 3.2%.
- 3.Higher foreign interest rate expectations and the need to prevent NOK depreciation supported the hawkish stance despite recent moderation in underlying summer inflation.
Table of Contents
- Norges Bank review: Higher for longer
Report data
Policy rate path forecast comparison
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Policy Rate | 4.5% | Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25bps to 4.5% |
| Neutral Rate (r*) | 3.2% | Upward adjustment of r* by 0.2ppp, from 3% to 3.2% |
| Expected GDP Growth | 1% | Norges Bank expects economic growth to be around 1% going forward |
| Inflation Target | 2% | Norges Bank policy target for inflation |
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Authors / Editors
Kjetil Olsen