Nordea
Report published September 2, 2026
Nordea Rates Strategy: New Call on the Riksbank Projects November Rate Hike
Nordea · September 2, 2026
Nordea has revised its Riksbank forecast to expect 25bp rate hikes in November and February, lifting the policy rate to 2.25% from 1.75% earlier than previously anticipated. The shift reflects SEK depreciation pressure, strong Swedish domestic demand, and rising electricity prices.
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Finvaulta summarizes Nordea's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Nordea brings forward its Riksbank tightening timetable, projecting 25bp rate hikes in November and February to reach a peak policy rate of 2.25%.
- 2.The terminal rate remains unchanged at 2.25%, which Nordea views as the neutral long-term policy level, held flat through December 2028.
- 3.Key drivers for front-loading hikes include SEK depreciation pressures from a hawkish global central bank backdrop, robust domestic Swedish demand, and rising winter electricity prices.
Table of Contents
- New call on the Riksbank: Rate hike in November
Report data
Author portrait of Torbjörn Isaksson
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Current Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Starting level of the policy rate before forecast hikes. |
| Forecast Riksbank Policy Rate (November) | 2.0% | Projected 25bp rate hike in November. |
| Forecast Riksbank Terminal Policy Rate (February) | 2.25% | Projected 25bp rate hike in February reaching the neutral rate, staying flat through December 2028. |
| Riksbank Inflation Target | 2.0% | Riksbank's official inflation target referenced in text. |
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Authors / Editors
Torbjörn Isaksson