US Nonfarm Payrolls Preview

The delayed January NFP report is expected to show 70k job adds with a 4.4% unemployment rate amidst significant annual benchmark revisions. Markets are watching for signs of labor market deterioration to gauge the timing and depth of future Fed rate cuts.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The January Headline NFP is expected to show an addition of 70k jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%.
• 2.Focus is high on final BLS benchmark revisions following a massive 911k downward preliminary revision for the year through March 2025.
• 3.Labor market proxies are leaning softer, with ADP missing forecasts and Challenger job cuts reaching the highest January levels since 2009.

Table of Contents

• EXPECTATIONS
• BLS REVISIONS
• LABOUR MARKET PROXIES
• OFFICIAL COMMENTARY
• FED IMPLICATIONS
• JPM TRADING SCENARIOS

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