Week in Focus

Latest edition · October 4, 2026

Week in Focus 4 9th October 2026 FOMC Minutes US ISM Services PMI OPEC Canadian Jobs and ECB Minutes 3

This weekly report previews key catalysts for October 4–9, 2026, including the Brazil general election, FOMC and ECB minutes, US ISM Services, and an anticipated RBI rate hike. It also reviews the prior week's market drivers, highlighted by soft US payrolls and August PCE data that cemented expectations for an October Fed pause.

The report highlights major macroeconomic events scheduled for the second week of October 2026 alongside a comprehensive review of recent data. Key forward-looking focal points include the Brazilian presidential election, the OPEC+ ministerial gathering, US ISM Services, and central bank minutes from both the FOMC and the ECB. In review, US economic momentum showed clear signs of deceleration as September NFP printed at just 29k alongside downward revisions, while core PCE moderated to 0.2% M/M. These developments prompted Fed officials to strike a more patient stance, reducing October hike pricing to 16% and overshadowing lingering inflation pressures seen across Europe, Australia, and Tokyo.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Soft US labor data (September payrolls at +29k vs +90k exp, prior revisions of -60k) and cooler August core PCE have substantially reduced market expectations for an October Fed rate hike down to 16%.
• 2.Upcoming FOMC minutes from the September meeting (where rates were hiked 25bps) risk appearing stale given that subsequent soft PCE and NFP releases have shifted the policy backdrop in a dovish direction.
• 3.Global central bank divergence continues: the RBA delivered a 25bps hike to 4.60% and the RBI is forecast to hike 25bps to 5.50%, while Riksbank and ECB faces persistent inflation driven by energy supply shocks.

What this series covers

• WEEK AHEAD
• WEEK IN REVIEW

Edition archive

• Week in Focus 4 9th October 2026 FOMC Minutes US ISM Services PMI OPEC Canadian Jobs and ECB Minutes 3

  October 4, 2026

• Week in Focus 21 25th September 2026 Highlights include Xi s visit to the US Global Flash PMIs Aussie jobs and the SNB rate decision

  September 21, 2026

• Week in Focus 17th 21st August 2026

  August 16, 2026

• Week in Focus 29th June - 3rd July 2026

  June 29, 2026