Newsquawk
Report published September 24, 2026
Riksbank Policy Announcement Preview: September 2026 Interest Rate Decision Analysis
Newsquawk · September 24, 2026
Analysts at ING, SEB, and Nordea anticipate the Riksbank will hold its policy rate steady at 1.75% in its September meeting. However, policymakers are expected to revise the MPR rate path upward to signal a 60–70% chance of a rate increase later in the year.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.The Riksbank is broadly expected by ING, SEB, and Nordea to maintain its policy rate at 1.75% at the September meeting.
- 2.The updated interest rate path (MPR) is anticipated to be revised hawkishly, implying a 60–70% probability of an interest rate hike later in the year (likely November).
- 3.A weakening labour market (unemployment at 8.9% in August) and early Q3 GDP contraction (-0.8% in July) provide reasons to hold off on immediate tightening, despite sticky CPIF inflation.
Table of Contents
- OVERVIEW
- DATA
- MPR / GUIDANCE
- Current MPR
- LAST MEETING
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Expected decision by Riksbank at the September meeting. |
| Headline CPIF Y/Y | 0.7% | Printed below consensus expectation of 0.8% but above Riksbank forecast of 0.6%. |
| Core CPIF Y/Y | 0.5% | Cooled from prior reading, coming below Riksbank view of 0.7%. |
| Swedish GDP M/M | -0.8% | Initial sign of economic weakness in Q3, missing expectations of -0.1%. |
| Unemployment Rate | 8.9% | Labour market remains weak, helping keep policymakers away from hiking. |
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