Report published September 24, 2026
Norges Bank Policy Announcement Preview: September 2026 Rate Decision Analysis
Newsquawk · September 24, 2026
Norges Bank's September 2026 policy decision is a finely balanced 50/50 call between holding at 4.25% or delivering a final 25 bps hike to 4.50%. Regardless of the action taken, policymakers are anticipated to maintain a tightening bias in their forward guidance and Monetary Policy Report.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Expectations are closely split between a 25 bps hike to 4.50% and keeping the Key Policy Rate unchanged at 4.25%.
- 2.Inflation prints are mixed: headline CPI rose to 3.3% Y/Y (above expectations), while core CPI-ATE eased to 3.0% Y/Y, coming in 0.3% below Norges Bank's forecast.
- 3.Sell-side analysts are divided: Danske Bank expects a hold due to existing restrictive policy, while Nordea, SEB, and ING anticipate a 25 bps hike.
Table of Contents
- OVERVIEW
- DATA
- HIKE OR HOLD
- MPR / GUIDANCE
- LAST MEETING
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Key Policy Rate (Current) | 4.25% | Level set at the previous meeting ahead of the September decision. |
| Key Policy Rate (Hike Potential) | 4.50% | Potential rate level if Norges Bank hikes by 25 bps. |
| Monetary Policy Report Peak Rate Forecast | 4.55% | Indicated peak rate under current MPR projections. |
| Headline CPI Y/Y | 3.3% | Printed above consensus expectation of 3.2% and previous reading of 3%. |
| Headline CPI M/M | -0.3% | Printed down from previous reading of 1%. |
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