Report published August 25, 2026
Middle East Weekly Tracker: Sanctions Pressure Rises as Hormuz Mediation Continues
Source and citation context
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 25, 2026
Authors / editors: Alicia Garcia Herrero (Chief Economist, Asia Pacific), Jeremy Ji
Finvaulta summarizes Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The Middle East conflict has shifted toward economic sanctions and pressure, with Iran setting strict conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US launching Operation Economic Outcast. Brent crude reached USD88/bbl while GCC credit and equity markets showed divergence, with Dubai under pressure due to its trade suspension with Iran.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Middle East conflict has pivoted toward economic and sanctions pressure as Iran demands blockade lifting and asset unfreezing, while the US designated ~60 targets under Operation Economic Outcast.
- 2.Brent crude rose to USD88/bbl (briefly touching USD90/bbl) amid continued near-floor maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- 3.GCC sovereign risk diverged: most GCC CDS narrowed (led by Abu Dhabi), while Dubai CDS widened following its suspension of all trade and financial transactions with Iran.
Table of Contents
- Conflict update
- Oil
- CDS
- Stock/other Markets
- Investment flows
- Real economy
- Market Movement
- Policy Rate and CPI
- Stock and Bond Market
- T-Spread and CDS
- Crude Oil Spot and Futures Market Price
- Capital Market Investment Flow
- By Ownership and By Market
- Transportation
- Maritime
- Airline
- Natixis CIB Research
- Disclaimer
Report data
Crude Oil Spot and Futures Market Price — as of August 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Future Price | 88.0 USD/bbl | Rose from USD84/bbl on 17 August to USD88/bbl on 25 August after briefly reaching USD90/bbl |
| Foreign Capital Outflows | 124.0 USD mn | Foreign outflows held at USD124mn in the week to 23 August |
| Dubai Foreign Equity Outflows | 78.0 USD mn | Dubai led the selling at USD78mn due to perceived Iran exposure |
| Sanctioned Targets under Operation Economic Outcast | 60.0 targets | US launched Operation Economic Outcast designating nearly 60 targets |
Reports in this series
Middle East Weekly Tracker is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.
Part of the Middle East Weekly Tracker series — view all 5 editions
- May 13Middle East Weekly Tracker Repeated Deal Setbacks Keep Oil Prices Elevated
- May 19Middle East Weekly Tracker US Turns to Economic Leverage as Iran Negotiations Drag On
- May 28Middle East Weekly Tracker Iran Talks Make Progress but Pressure Remains
- Jun 1Middle East Weekly Tracker Iran Deal Awaits Final Terms While Pressure Persists
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brent Crude Future Price: 88.0 USD/bbl (2026-08-25) · Source: Bloomberg
- Foreign Capital Outflows: 124.0 USD mn (Week to 2026-08-23) · Source: Dubai Financial Market, Saudi Exchange
- Dubai Foreign Equity Outflows: 78.0 USD mn (Week to 2026-08-23) · Source: Dubai Financial Market, Saudi Exchange
- Sanctioned Targets under Operation Economic Outcast: 60.0 targets (2026-08-24) · Source: Natixis