Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking
February 12, 2026
January Jobs Recap Ammo for the Hawks
Market ReportMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsHealth Care
The strong January jobs report, featuring high payroll gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate, has prompted Natixis to push back its forecast for a Fed rate cut from March to later in the year.
Key Takeaways
- 1.January payroll gains far exceeded expectations, quelling fears of a rapidly softening labor market.
- 2.The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while labor force participation increased, indicating genuine labor market strength.
- 3.The strong report has led Natixis to remove their forecast for a March interest rate cut.
Table of Contents
- US MACRO SNAPSHOT
- January Jobs Recap: Ammo for the Hawks – cuts delayed, not cuts denied
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Christopher HodgeSelin Aker
Securities
Fed funds rate
Themes
Fed Policy Shift (Hawkish)Labor Market Resilience
Regions
North AmericaUnited States
