Natixis Colombia Outlook: Macroeconomic, Fiscal, and Monetary Analysis (August 2026)

Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking · August 1, 2026

A major Mw 7.4–7.5 earthquake in August 2026 has prompted an estimated $12.9bn reconstruction effort in Colombia, widening fiscal deficits to 7.2% of GDP in 2026 and 9.4% in 2027. Natixis expects monetary policy to remain restrictive at a 12.00% terminal rate through early 2027 before cutting rates, with reconstruction shifting economic growth toward investment.

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Finvaulta summarizes Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.An Mw 7.4–7.5 earthquake struck Chocó on August 10, 2026, causing widespread damage across 472 municipalities and estimated reconstruction costs between COP 30tn–40tn ($9.6bn–$12.9bn or 1.9%–2.5% of GDP).
2.The revised fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 7.2% of GDP in 2026 and 9.4% in 2027 due to rebuilding costs, though the government plans to offset pressures entirely via spending cuts of ~1.3% of GDP rather than tax hikes.
3.BanRep is expected to reach a terminal policy rate of 12.00% through early 2027, supported by restrictive policy stance and COP strength, before gradual easing toward 10.75% by end-2027.

Colombia: 2026 Outlook
Colombia: Monitor
Colombia: Growth
Colombia: Growth expectations
Colombia: Demand
Colombia: Labor
Colombia: Inflation
Colombia: Exchange rate
Colombia: Monetary Policy
Colombia: Trade
Colombia: Current Account
Colombia: External position
Colombia: Fiscal Balance
Colombia: International Assets
Colombia: Bond yield
Colombia: Bonds and Equities flow
Colombia: FX Outlook
Colombia: Macro Forecasts
Natixis CIB Global Teams

Report data

Colombia: Macro Forecasts

Metric	Estimate	Context
Earthquake magnitude	7.4-7.5 Mw	Strongest earthquake felt across Colombia in years, epicentered in Chocó near San José del Palmar.
Reconstruction cost estimate	30-40 trillion COP	Initial government estimate of COP 30tn revised by DNP up to COP 40tn (~$12.9bn or 2.5% of GDP).
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)	7.2%	Revised 2026 budget deficit target following earthquake reconstruction and COP 21.9tn spending cuts.
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)	9.4%	Budget target for 2027 reflecting peak impact of reconstruction outlays.
Real GDP Growth	2.8%	Annual real GDP growth forecast.