MUFG
Report published August 17, 2026
US Data Softens as Focus Shifts to China: MUFG Daily FX & Macro Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- MUFG
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 14, 2026
Authors / editors: Lloyd Chan
Finvaulta summarizes MUFG's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Daily UpdateCommoditiesEquitiesFXInformation TechnologyReal Estate
US economic indicators showed signs of softness in July with declining retail sales and weaker consumer sentiment, though the DXY remains near 100. Asian FX focus shifts toward China's July activity and credit data alongside divergent regional growth trajectories in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Softening US economic indicators (retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment) have weighed on the USD/DXY, though 2-year Treasury yields hold above 4% with markets still pricing one more Fed hike this year.
- 2.Market focus has shifted to China's upcoming July activity data following weak credit growth, where any downside surprise could pressure China-linked Asian currencies.
- 3.Regional Asian currency divergence continues, with outperforming Malaysia GDP and robust Singapore tech exports supporting MYR and SGD, while softer growth expectations weigh on the Thai baht.
Table of Contents
- Market Highlights
- Ahead Today
- INDICATIVE RATES 14-Aug-2026
- FOREIGN EXCHANGE
- Disclaimer
Report data
CHART 1: CHINA'S SLUGGISH LENDING GROWTH — as of August 14, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | Retail sales fell 0.6% mom in July, reversing the 0.2% mom gain in June and missing expectations for a 0.1% increase. |
| US Core Retail Sales MoM (ex autos and gasoline) | -0.2% | Core retail sales declined 0.2% mom after rising 0.4% mom in June vs consensus of +0.3%. |
| University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | 51.0 index points | Fell from 55.2 to 51.0, below the 55.0 consensus expectation. |
| China New CNY Loans | -340.0 RMB bn | China's new CNY loans fell by RMB340bn in July. |
| China Aggregate Financing Stock Growth YoY | 7.4% | Growth in aggregate financing stock slowed to 7.4%. |
Reports in this series
Asia FX Talk is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
Part of the Asia FX Talk series — view all 47 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Asia FX Talk Stronger US Jobs data (Sep 7, 2026)
- May 11Asia FX Talk - USD capped despite stronger-than-consensus NFP
- May 14Asia FX Talk - Trump-Xi Summit key
- May 18Asia FX Talk - Sharp rise in global bond yields weigh on EM Asia currencies
- May 19Asia FX Talk - EM Asia currencies remain under pressure
- May 21Asia FX Talk - Jumbo rate hike by Bank Indonesia to defend Rupiah
- May 25Asia FX Talk - USD holds firm, but a US-Iran deal risks a reversal
- May 26Asia FX Talk - First come first serve
- Jun 3Asia FX Talk - At a crossroad
- Jun 4Asia FX Talk - Regional FX remains defensive
- Jun 5Asia FX Talk - Risks appear balanced in NFP print
- Jun 8Asia FX Talk - Upside NFP surprise jolts regional FX
- Jun 9Asia FX Talk - Asian central banks are pushing back
- Jun 10Asia FX Talk - USD stays firm, BI tightens to support rupiah
- Jun 11Asia FX Talk - Escalating Middle East risks weigh on regional FX
- Jun 12Asia FX Talk - Hope deferred makes the heart sick
- Jun 15Asia FX Talk - It is finished US and Iran reach deal
- Jun 16Asia FX Talk - BOJ and RBA kick off central bank week
- Jun 17Asia FX Talk - FOMC in focus
- Jun 18Asia FX Talk - Hawkish repricing of US rates
- Jun 19Asia FX Talk - Asian central banks tighten policy amidst hawkish Fed and stronger USD
- Jun 23Asia FX Talk - Asian currencies modestly weaker
- Jun 24Asia FX Talk - Risk-off with semiconductor stocks lower
- Jun 25Asia FX Talk - USDJPY tests 2024 highs amid dollar strength
- Jun 26Asia FX Talk - USD stays firm amid higher inflation
- Jun 30Asia FX Talk - Fed independence maintained for now
- Jul 1Asia FX Talk - Risk sentiment improves
- Jul 2Asia FX Talk - JPY intervention risks ahead - 2 July 2026
- Jul 3Asia FX Talk - Softer non-farm payrolls and suspected intervention supported JPY
- Jul 6Asia FX Talk - Watching out for next Dollar catalyst and local Asia factors
- Jul 7Asia FX Talk - Can future cashflows justify AI buildout
- Jul 9Asia FX Talk - US yields and oil rebound keep pressure on regional FX
- Jul 10Asia FX Talk - Rupiah weakness could persist
- Jul 13Asia FX Talk - Kevin Warsh's Taskforces Assemble - 13 July 2026
- Jul 14MUFG -Asia FX Talk - When you say nothing at all
- Jul 15Asia FX Talk - US inflation decline softens Fed rate hike expectations
- Jul 22Asia FX Talk - Indonesia - There is no free lunch
- Jul 23Asia FX Talk - Energy supply risks back in focus as US-Iran tensions intensify
- Jul 29Asia FX Talk - FOMC in focus
- Jul 30Asia FX Talk - FOMC - Talk is cheap, sharp sell-off in long-end US yields
- Aug 5Asia FX Talk - There she goes... there she goes again
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Authors / Editors
Lloyd Chan
Reported Data Context
- US Retail Sales MoM: -0.6 % (2026-07)
- US Core Retail Sales MoM (ex autos and gasoline): -0.2 % (2026-07)
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51.0 index points (2026-07)
- China New CNY Loans: -340.0 RMB bn (2026-07)
- China Aggregate Financing Stock Growth YoY: 7.4 % (2026-07)
Securities
XAUUS 10-year Treasury noteDXYUSDCNYUSDMYRUSDSGDUSDTHBCO1
Themes
US Macro Softening and Fed ExpectationsChina Credit Growth and Economic ActivityAsian FX and Growth Divergence
Regions
Asia PacificNorth AmericaUnited StatesChinaMalaysia