Report published September 24, 2026
Treasury Selloff Deepens: US Yields and Oil Rally Drive Fed Repricing (MUFG)
MUFG · September 24, 2026
Surging US Treasury yields and rising energy prices pushed the US dollar higher, setting a challenging backdrop for Asian currencies. While regional FX broadly weakened, performance is set to differentiate between tech-cushioned economies and energy-vulnerable markets.
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Finvaulta summarizes MUFG's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US Treasury yields surged across the curve following stronger-than-expected US PMI data and climbing crude oil prices, raising market expectations of further Fed tightening.
- 2.The US dollar extended its rally with the DXY advancing 0.5%, pressuring Asian currencies, led lower by the Korean won and Japanese yen.
- 3.Asia FX performance is expected to diverge: tech-exposed economies (Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia) have a buffer, whereas energy-vulnerable economies without tech exposure face sharper headwinds.
Table of Contents
- Market Highlights
- Ahead Today
- INDICATIVE RATES 23-Sep-2026
- FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Report data
CHART 1: TREASURY SELLOFF DEEPENS, 30Y YIELD ABOVE 5.4% — as of September 23, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Manufacturing PMI | 57.0 index | Rose from 53.9 previously, comfortably beating consensus expectations |
| US Services PMI | 58.7 index | Services PMI climbed to 58.7 |
| US 2-Year Treasury Yield Change | 14 bps | Jumped 14bp to around 4.9% |
| Expected Fed Tightening | 37 bps | Priced by markets, equivalent to roughly 1.5 rate hikes by year-end |
| Brent Crude Daily Change | 4.3% | Brent crude surged a further 4.3% yesterday amid geopolitical risks |
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Asia FX Talk is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
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