Recurring series

FX Weekly

Finvaulta tracks 13 editions of FX Weekly from MUFG, published between May 12, 2026 and October 9, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.

Latest edition · October 9, 2026

FX Weekly

The US dollar trades near year-to-date highs, buoyed by compounding European headwinds including elevated French fiscal risk and energy price pressures. MUFG maintains short EUR/JPY and long USD/SEK tactical trades amid broad-based euro vulnerability.

The USD remains near year-to-date highs as momentum shifted from US domestic rate dynamics toward worsening external fundamentals across Europe. Escalating fiscal and political turmoil in France has pushed French-German sovereign yield spreads to levels not seen since the 2011–2012 sovereign debt crisis, while natural gas prices approach annual highs due to ongoing US-Iran tensions. With the ECB constrained by financial fragmentation concerns and the BoJ expected to hike again before year-end, MUFG maintains open short EUR/JPY and long USD/SEK trade ideas. Historical analysis shows CHF is the best regional hedge against severe EUR declines, while persistent Japanese retail outflows via expanded NISA limits continue to pressure the yen.

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Key takeaways from the latest edition

1.The USD remains near year-to-date highs, driven by negative overseas developments including energy price shocks and French fiscal and political risks.
2.MUFG maintains tactical trade ideas of Long USD/SEK (target 10.300, stop 9.600) and Short EUR/JPY (target 171.00, stop 181.00).
3.French sovereign debt spread to German Bunds widened to 2011–2012 sovereign debt crisis levels as budget proposals failed to restore confidence.

What this series covers

Fundamentals aligned for a stronger USD
FX: Lacking clear catalyst to turnaround bearish EUR sentiment
Weekly Calendar
Open Trade Ideas
FX Portfolio
FX Positioning
JPY Flows – Portfolio securities & by investor type
EUR price action analysis during periods of weakness
THE POST-SHOCK PHASE: LEADERSHIP ROTATES

Edition archive

Series at a glance

Editions tracked: 13
First edition: May 12, 2026
Latest edition: October 9, 2026

All MUFG research

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