Recurring series

FX Daily Snapshot

Finvaulta tracks 54 editions of FX Daily Snapshot from MUFG, published between May 11, 2026 and September 2, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.

Latest edition · September 2, 2026

FX Daily Snapshot

Hawkish commentary from BoJ officials has fully priced in a September rate hike and pushed USD/JPY back below 160.00, despite headwinds from oil near $100/bbl. Meanwhile, the NZD dropped after the RBNZ signaled a cautious, gradual path despite delivering a 25bps hike.

The Japanese yen found overnight support from hawkish remarks by BoJ Governor Ueda and board member Takata, fully cementing expectations for a 25bps rate hike at the September 18 policy meeting and pulling USD/JPY below 160.00. However, persistent energy price pressure from Brent crude approaching $100/barrel—driven by US military strikes on IRGC targets in Iran—continues to present a headwind for the yen. Elsewhere, rising energy prices have bolstered expectations for a potential September Fed hike (with 17bps priced in and the US 2-year yield at 4.41%), though US dollar gains are capped by policy risk premia and debasement fears. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar sold off sharply after the RBNZ paired a 25bps rate hike with cautious forward guidance, reducing October hike pricing to 36%.

Read the latest edition in full

Key takeaways from the latest edition

1.The Japanese yen strengthened back below 160.00 against the USD following hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda and board member Takata, with a 25bps rate hike at the September 18 meeting now fully priced in.
2.US Treasury 2-year yields hit a year-to-date high of 4.41% as rising oil prices drive expectations for Fed rate hikes (with 17bps priced in for September 16), though a higher US policy risk premium and Treasury buyback debasement fears restrain USD upside.
3.The New Zealand dollar dropped sharply after the RBNZ delivered a 25bps rate hike but provided cautious forward guidance, reducing October rate hike expectations from 65% to 36%.

What this series covers

USD/JPY: BoJ & Fed rate hike expectations continue to build
LARGER US POLICY RISK PREMIUM CURRENTLY PRICED INTO USD?
NZD: RBNZ sticks to plans for gradual rate hikes weighing on kiwi
KEY RELEASES AND EVENTS
CERTIFICATION
LEGAL ENTITIES AND BRANCHES
GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC DISCLAIMERS

Edition archive

Series at a glance

Editions tracked: 54
First edition: May 11, 2026
Latest edition: September 2, 2026

All MUFG research

Never miss an edition

Create an account to follow this series