Recurring series
MUFGEuropean Macro Weekly
Finvaulta tracks 5 editions of European Macro Weekly from MUFG, published between May 11, 2026 and September 4, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.
Latest edition · September 4, 2026
European Macro Weekly
Economic divergence is widening between Germany and France, with Germany gaining cyclical recovery momentum while French growth stalls amid persistent political uncertainty. Meanwhile, the ECB is poised to deliver a 25bp hike taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, likely concluding its tightening cycle.
MUFG highlights a growing divergence in the euro area core: German Q2 GDP was revised up to 0.3% Q/Q alongside improving export performance and business sentiment, while French Q2 GDP stalled at 0.0% amid ongoing political uncertainty and difficult upcoming budget negotiations. OAT-Bund spreads have widened back to late-2024 levels as a result. Looking to the week ahead, the ECB is expected to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.50%, reaching the upper bound of neutral; MUFG maintains that this will likely be the last hike of the cycle despite hawkish rhetoric from Christine Lagarde driven by headline inflation and energy price pressures.
Read the latest edition in fullKey takeaways from the latest edition
- 1.Economic momentum is diverging between core economies: Germany is showing cyclical recovery signs with Q2 GDP upwardly revised to 0.3% Q/Q, while French growth has stalled at 0.0% Q/Q.
- 2.France faces prolonged political uncertainty, approaching difficult 2027 budget talks and elections, leading OAT-Bund 10Y spreads to widen back to late-2024 levels.
- 3.The ECB is expected to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.50% at its next meeting, which MUFG expects will mark the final hike of the cycle.
What this series covers
- Euro area growth – divergence in the core
- The French economy has lagged the euro area in H1
- OAT-Bund spreads have widened over the summer
- What we're watching next week
- Key data releases and events (week commencing Monday 7 September)
- Disclaimer
Edition archive
Series at a glance
- Editions tracked
- 5
- First edition
- May 11, 2026
- Latest edition
- September 4, 2026